
This morning on a US Tech Coast Angels (TCA) webinar (www.techcoastangels.com) the chairman of TCA, Richard Sudek, was asked what deals are interesting investors at the moment. He said that green-tech, including solar energy, have been hot for some years and are still hot. The areas sophisticated investors are putting their money into now is a good indication of what technologies they believe will be winners in 5 to 10 years when they are looking for a return on their investment. They conduct thorough due diligence in the deals they invest in and they put in a minimum of $25,000 when they do invest. Anyone can have an opinion that costs them nothing but when that amount of money is being invested by private, knowledgeable investors maybe it’s saying something more than opinion. Anyway, here’s my opinion:
When I was a bout 15 I polished the inside of a steel wok, took it out into the sun and felt the concentrated heat at the focal point of this pseudo-parabolic mirror. That was about 35 years ago and I’ve been following the debate about energy sources in Australia ever since. One thing that hasn’t changed in that time is the debate between those who are pro-nuclear and those who aren’t. On both sides of the debate are credible scientists, engineers and economists and to the interested observer the debate seems to be never-ending with claims followed by refutations followed by counter-refutations. Now that we are experiencing increasing pressure to make some serious decisions about our energy future how are members of the public supposed to decide which path to support?
It’s an interesting question because a nuclear energy future for Australia is not something we would enter into in a small way. It would have to be a major commitment to make the investment worth it. It’s not like we would decide to build just 2 or 3 small nuclear power plants to see how they go. So the old saying “you are either with us or against us” will hold true for a lot of people. There’s no simple answer so the best thing is to become informed then choose which club feels right for you. When you’ve chosen the pro or no-nuclear club you’ll find any number of credible sources of information to back you up. Like the photo above, turn it upside down and you can still see the sense in it.
I’m on the no-nuclear side of the debate. When I look at the most credible sources on both sides the pro-nuclear side just doesn’t seem as convincing. I can’t say why without having my reasons refuted, it’s more of a gut feeling. OK, I’ll be a little more specific. Here are three reasons why I think the non-nuclear future for Australia is a better one:
1. Australia’s competitive advantage. Pursuing nuclear energy in Australia would mean buying almost all the technology from the US or Europe as we have very little of the right expertise and intellectual property here and we would have very little chance of ever becoming competitive due to our small size and the late stage we would be entering the market. By contrast we do have a history of developing alternative energy technologies so there’s a reasonable chance we can become an exporter of energy technology. I suppose we could have both nuclear and renewables but I fear our competitive advantage in the renewables market would be lost because we’d have to direct so many resources to nuclear. I’d put my money behind technologies where Australia has a good chance of being competitive.
2. The rate of change of technologies. Both the pro-nuclear and pro-renewables supporters are prone to making optimistic projections so rather than waiting to see what happens in the future maybe we should look at the track record. In the last 35 years the nuclear industry has not changed very much. Same reactors providing about the same percentage of power at about the same price. The track record for nuclear is that things aren’t changing in a hurry. By contrast the renewable energy industry has rapidly grown in both size and diversity. So my money is on the technology sector which is growing and diversifying rapidly rather than the one that isn’t changing much despite the huge resources pumped into it over the last 50 years.
3. Containment. Think about the difference between two large power plants, one nuclear and one concentrated solar thermal. A large expense of the solar plant is in being able to contain something very hot. For the nuclear plant there is the need to contain something which is both very hot and very radioactive. Sounds similar but the containment of something very radioactive to an extremely high degree of reliability and safety is going to be very, very expensive. I’d put my money behind a technology that had one big containment problem to solve rather than two big containment problems to solve.
A quick trawl through the internet will reveal any number of good sources for and against nuclear power. Here are some:
For reasons why nuclear is not a good idea for Australia from an economic point of view have a read of Anthony Owen’s paper – epress.anu.edu.au/agenda/013/03/13-3-A-1.pdf
For a review of the problems associated with the next generation of nuclear power plants have a read of this article by Amory Lovins – www.nirs.org/factsheets/lovinsonifretc.pdf
Here’s the latest report from Beyond Zero emissions outlining how they think Australia’s energy needs can be met by renewables – beyondzeroemissions.org/zero-carbon-australia-2020
For reasons why a lot of people think nuclear is a good idea for Australia have a look at – bravenewclimate.com/
Or, for a long and sober account of the potential for nuclear energy in Australia, check this report – www.ansto.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/38975/Umpner_report_2006.pdf